Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5403 HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 5180 HPN 13:43 → CLT 15:50 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5403 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 07:55	CLT 09:57	10%	3%	1.5%	87%
AA 5431 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 11:00	CLT 12:56	12%	5%	1.7%	81%
AA 5070 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 18:59	CLT 21:05	18%	13%	2.7%	59%
AA 5180 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HPN 13:43	CLT 15:50	19%	8%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON