Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 12:39	DTW 14:37	11%	4%	1.0%	71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 17:19	DTW 19:18	16%	7%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 15:30 → DCA 17:03AA 5254 · flown by PSA	3h 11m Washington	DCA 20:14 → DTW 22:06AA 4616 · flown by Republic	6h 36m	96%	84%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 09:59 → DTW 12:29AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 05m	99%	83%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 14m Washington	DCA 10:04 → DTW 11:55AA 5660 · flown by PSA	5h 25m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:09 → MSP 17:23DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 23m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 23m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 27m	95%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → DTW 14:17AA 1683	6h 22m	94%	76%
American Details →	HPN 11:00 → CLT 12:56AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 15:48 → DTW 17:36AA 1134	6h 36m	97%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON