Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: B6 813 at 09:51 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 813 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 09:51	FLL 12:52	20%	8%	6.8%	80%
B6 613 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 20:30	FLL 23:27	31%	15%	3.4%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 12:39 → DTW 14:37DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	3h 48m Detroit	DTW 18:25 → FLL 21:27DL 2296	8h 48m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512	5h 54m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670	6h 52m	99%	66%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 17:00 → FLL 21:17AA 2881	9h 17m	98%	61%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:39 → ATL 21:13DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	6h 00m	89%	59%
American Details →	HPN 11:00 → CLT 12:56AA 5431 · flown by PSA	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 15:34 → FLL 17:40AA 2397	6h 40m	97%	57%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 08:00 → SJU 11:51B6 2601	3h 42m San Juan	SJU 15:33 → FLL 18:15B6 1454	10h 15m	98%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON