Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 17:19, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:09	MSP 17:23	12%	6%	1.1%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	8h 21m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	7h 24m	99%	80%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	7h 28m	94%	77%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 11:49 → MSP 13:55AA 2448	8h 31m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:39 → DTW 14:37DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	1h 43m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 33m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:39 → ATL 21:13DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 00m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:19 → DTW 19:18DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	58m Detroit	DTW 20:16 → MSP 21:10DL 1303	4h 51m	83%	66%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	2h 19m Chicago	ORD 15:57 → MSP 17:53AA 2472	6h 53m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON