Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3751 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3751 HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3812 HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3751 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 06:24	ORD 08:05	8%	3%	1.4%	94%
AA 3496 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 07:10	ORD 08:51	9%	3%	1.4%	89%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 17:55	ORD 19:50	18%	8%	1.8%	68%
AA 3808 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 16:30	ORD 18:20	18%	6%	2.2%	72%
AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 12:00	ORD 13:38	19%	5%	1.5%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON