Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1551 at 06:30, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1551 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:30	RSW 09:23	9%	3%	5.1%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153	7h 07m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	1h 57m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	6h 04m	99%	74%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 22m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → RSW 16:18AA 2561	9h 08m	98%	69%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 18m Charlotte	CLT 12:15 → RSW 14:14AA 2018	6h 19m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:39 → ATL 21:13DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	5h 44m	89%	65%
American Details →	HPN 16:30 → ORD 18:20AA 3808 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29AA 3238	6h 59m	84%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON