Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 2601 at 08:00, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 2601 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 08:00	SJU 11:51	17%	7%	1.3%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861	9h 38m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 03m	90%	71%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → SJU 14:50AA 783	6h 55m	91%	65%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 07:30 → MCO 10:14B6 2695	1h 26m Orlando	MCO 11:40 → SJU 14:40B6 133	7h 10m	95%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON