Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1447 at 06:29, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1447 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 06:29	TPA 09:33	9%	4%	3.4%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 12:39 → DTW 14:37DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	3h 53m Detroit	DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355	8h 30m	99%	81%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	2h 31m Washington	DCA 10:21 → TPA 13:03AA 3126	6h 33m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	7h 39m	95%	77%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:51 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:16 → TPA 18:49DL 1594	5h 58m	99%	74%
American Details →	HPN 11:29 → DCA 12:55AA 5282 · flown by PSA	2h 57m Washington	DCA 15:52 → TPA 18:29AA 1944	7h 00m	96%	73%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:57 → TPA 15:47AA 1982	7h 52m	96%	70%
American Details →	HPN 06:24 → ORD 08:05AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → TPA 13:21AA 2920	6h 57m	96%	69%
American Details →	HPN 15:30 → DCA 17:03AA 5254 · flown by PSA	1h 57m Washington	DCA 19:00 → TPA 21:25AA 544	5h 55m	91%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON