Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3009 HSV 07:10 → ATL 09:15 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3026 HSV 17:11 → ATL 19:17 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:10	ATL 09:15	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 06:00	ATL 08:05	9%	3%	0.8%	99%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:27	ATL 14:33	11%	4%	1.3%	85%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 17:11	ATL 19:17	17%	7%	2.2%	82%
DL 4762 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:48	ATL 16:55	14%	14%	0.0%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON