Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5141 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day OH 5141 HSV 05:01 → DFW 07:14 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6302 HSV 12:24 → DFW 14:26 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5141 PSA	HSV 05:01	DFW 07:14	12%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:45	DFW 11:43	15%	4%	1.2%	89%
MQ 3634 Envoy	HSV 07:05	DFW 09:15	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 14:31	DFW 16:41	20%	9%	3.2%	70%
MQ 3504 Envoy	HSV 16:31	DFW 18:31	23%	8%	2.4%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	HSV 12:24	DFW 14:26	25%	12%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON