Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 6464 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 6464 HSV 07:32 → ORD 09:53 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 6352 HSV 12:14 → ORD 14:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 6464 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 07:32	ORD 09:53	16%	6%	1.2%	91%
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 12:14	ORD 14:28	28%	11%	1.6%	75%
UA 4480 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 07:15	ORD 09:33	12%	7%	1.1%	88%
UA 4469 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 12:57	ORD 15:10	33%	15%	5.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON