Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:53, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2070 United	IAD 17:45	ABQ 20:08	21%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395	2h 59m Denver	DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ABQ 15:07DL 1109	8h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → ABQ 10:20DL 1004	6h 27m	95%	81%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594	6h 44m	96%	81%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:52 → ABQ 11:46AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	97%	79%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	1h 05m Houston	IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa	6h 47m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531	8h 40m	96%	74%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	2h 46m Denver	DEN 19:15 → ABQ 20:39UA 484	8h 04m	99%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON