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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:11, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 49m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280 12h 15m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 11h 50m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015 3h 55m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 13h 25m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 2h 57m Seattle SEA 11:45 → ANC 14:40AS 1333 12h 37m 99% 69%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:56 → SEA 12:36AS 375 3h 22m Seattle SEA 15:58 → ANC 18:37AS 99 12h 41m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 1h 50m Chicago ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461 10h 38m 93% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON