Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2127 at 05:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day DL 2127 IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4409 IAD 20:33 → ATL 22:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2127 Delta Flight history →	IAD 05:53	ATL 07:47	8%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 2739 United Flight history →	IAD 08:24	ATL 10:27	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 3080 Delta Flight history →	IAD 08:08	ATL 10:01	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	IAD 10:58	ATL 12:38	11%	3%	0.7%	85%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	IAD 15:22	ATL 17:11	14%	4%	0.8%	73%
UA 471 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	ATL 14:34	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1357 United	IAD 22:21	ATL 00:26	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 4707 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:49	ATL 09:06	21%	7%	0.8%	71%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	IAD 18:17	ATL 20:09	21%	7%	1.4%	74%
F9 4409 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 20:33	ATL 22:44	31%	12%	1.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON