Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:08, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 44% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2746 United Flight history →	IAD 12:32	AUS 15:18	11%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 2337 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	AUS 20:35	16%	7%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	3h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 11:50 → AUS 14:40DL 2062	9h 40m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	7h 32m	99%	83%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	2h 11m Chicago	ORD 11:47 → AUS 14:41UA 1061	7h 26m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → AUS 13:51DL 2104	6h 43m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Detroit	DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218	5h 59m	92%	81%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 39m Denver	DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270	7h 45m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → AUS 15:50DL 1397	5h 52m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → AUS 20:55DL 2749	7h 44m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831	58m Newark	EWR 20:04 → AUS 23:04UA 1032	6h 22m	44%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON