Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4823 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:30	BUF 19:03	24%	11%	4.1%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 18m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787	2h 38m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978	5h 23m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266	5h 15m	94%	75%
United Details →	IAD 10:30 → ORD 11:52UA 1252	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 14:14 → BUF 16:47UA 580	6h 17m	100%	75%
Frontier Details →	IAD 06:49 → ATL 09:06F9 4707	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:52 → BUF 13:09F9 1408	6h 20m	93%	68%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	1h 06m Denver	DEN 17:35 → BUF 22:47UA 731	8h 12m	92%	66%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → BUF 23:42DL 2334	5h 25m	87%	66%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → BUF 16:06AA 1724	9h 52m	98%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON