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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 44m 91% 83%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:15 → LAS 08:31F9 4277 2h 40m Las Vegas LAS 11:11 → BUR 12:34F9 4107 9h 19m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 10h 03m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 9h 05m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 42m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 2h 06m Seattle SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395 10h 25m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 35m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 8h 19m 93% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON