Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4818 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 08:20	CAE 09:58	10%	3%	1.1%	81%
UA 4288 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 12:54	CAE 14:38	13%	5%	2.1%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:14 → CAE 11:20DL 1590	5h 27m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	4h 51m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	5h 26m	95%	76%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:01 → CAE 13:45AA 5437 · flown by PSA	7h 31m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CAE 20:07DL 2193	4h 45m	92%	73%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	3h 52m Chicago	ORD 18:21 → CAE 21:25UA 5594 · flown by SkyWest	8h 10m	98%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON