Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2131 at 22:15, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2131 United Flight history →	IAD 22:15	CLE 23:44	9%	4%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → CLE 15:29DL 2545	7h 21m	99%	84%
United Details →	IAD 10:30 → ORD 11:52UA 1252	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502	6h 24m	100%	80%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → CLE 15:28UA 1878	7h 13m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:40 → CLE 22:30DL 1339	7h 08m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → CLE 09:37DL 5392 · flown by Endeavor	3h 37m	90%	75%
American Details →	IAD 18:11 → CLT 19:45AA 5447 · flown by PSA	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	6h 18m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	6h 32m	95%	72%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497	2h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457	6h 07m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	IAD 06:49 → ATL 09:06F9 4707	50m Atlanta	ATL 09:56 → CLE 11:49F9 2410	5h 00m	71%	53%
United Details →	IAD 17:22 → MCO 19:45UA 2463	48m Orlando	MCO 20:33 → CLE 23:10UA 583	5h 48m	64%	50%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831	49m Newark	EWR 19:55 → CLE 21:45UA 2398	4h 03m	26%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON