Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5151 IAD 10:21 → CLT 12:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1896 IAD 07:56 → CLT 09:24 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5151 PSA	IAD 10:21	CLT 12:00	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	IAD 12:29	CLT 14:03	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3001 American	IAD 06:13	CLT 07:41	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 18:11	CLT 19:45	16%	6%	1.4%	73%
UA 2074 United	IAD 22:21	CLT 23:59	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1896 American	IAD 07:56	CLT 09:24	17%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON