tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4241 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record IAD 12:44 DAY 14:18 16% 8% 0.7% 84%
UA 4188 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:15 DAY 09:48 19% 11% 2.7% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → DAY 15:29DL 2763 7h 21m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 4h 37m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 20:10 → DAY 21:44DL 3167 6h 22m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 34m Denver DEN 18:03 → DAY 22:37UA 2635 8h 02m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 2h 30m Chicago ORD 21:20 → DAY 23:49UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 6h 07m 94% 60%
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:55 → DFW 19:15AA 524 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:13 → DAY 23:44AA 5245 · flown by PSA 6h 49m 76% 57%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 3h 22m Chicago ORD 17:51 → DAY 20:22UA 4484 · flown by GoJet 7h 07m 97% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON