Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2617 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2617 IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2116 IAD 18:00 → DFW 20:25 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	9%	3%	1.1%	85%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	DFW 15:04	15%	6%	0.6%	79%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 12:23	DFW 14:49	17%	7%	1.3%	70%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 16:55	DFW 19:15	22%	8%	1.7%	83%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	22%	9%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON