tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1825 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1825 United Flight history → IAD 08:22 FLL 11:09 16% 4% 2.2% 89%
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history → IAD 17:29 FLL 20:12 40% 12% 2.6% 53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 1h 16m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:51UA 1374 9h 16m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 48m Denver DEN 13:53 → FLL 19:44UA 1384 9h 31m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 47m Houston IAH 14:46 → FLL 18:30UA 1424 9h 50m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 57m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 7h 25m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 1h 24m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 7h 32m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 30m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 19m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396 2h 14m Newark EWR 11:56 → FLL 15:11UA 2759 6h 56m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON