Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4349 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 12:59	GSO 14:18	17%	4%	1.0%	81%
C5 4251 CommuteAir	IAD 17:22	GSO 18:45	23%	5%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:46 → GSO 12:26DL 4966 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → GSO 14:13DL 3060	6h 05m	98%	87%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:22 → GSO 14:12AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	7h 58m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	4h 32m	95%	83%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396	2h 29m Newark	EWR 12:11 → GSO 14:05UA 4509 · flown by GoJet	5h 50m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → GSO 22:20DL 1617	6h 58m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787	58m Detroit	DTW 19:55 → GSO 21:50DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	4h 28m	84%	75%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	5h 42m	95%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → GSO 22:20DL 1617	4h 03m	73%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON