tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 345 United Flight history → IAD 08:30 HNL 12:20 23% 8% 0.7% 76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312 13h 43m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:54 → ATL 07:48DL 2127 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 13h 26m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432 2h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 13h 09m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:41 → LAX 15:49UA 1689 1h 16m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 12h 03m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Detroit DTW 10:30 → HNL 14:07DL 307 14h 07m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:25 → LAX 10:54UA 1734 2h 21m Los Angeles LAX 13:15 → HNL 16:17UA 1224 13h 52m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 56m San Francisco SFO 14:15 → HNL 16:29UA 300 13h 54m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 55m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 15h 00m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON