Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2084 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	JAX 10:51	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	19%	8%	1.2%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	6h 07m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024	5h 17m	97%	82%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396	2h 24m Newark	EWR 12:06 → JAX 14:43UA 2678	6h 28m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	54m Detroit	DTW 08:29 → JAX 10:49DL 2333	4h 49m	88%	78%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	1h 11m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	6h 57m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440	6h 52m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → JAX 22:15DL 2189	6h 53m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	5h 52m	95%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	50m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → JAX 22:15DL 2189	3h 58m	75%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON