Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1323 at 09:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1323 IAD 09:02 → LAS 11:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2209 IAD 18:05 → LAS 20:13 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 09:02	LAS 11:09	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	13%	4%	0.6%	91%
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:15	LAS 08:31	18%	5%	0.7%	66%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:05	LAS 20:13	23%	9%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 31m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	92%	79%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493	7h 25m	96%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON