Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2011 IAD 06:57 → LAX 09:23 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2011 United	IAD 06:57	LAX 09:23	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	12%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:24	LAX 10:52	12%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 657 United	IAD 09:30	LAX 12:05	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	21%	6%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 52m	96%	80%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 21m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 44m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	7h 20m	90%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON