tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Detroit DTW 10:05 → LGA 11:50DL 2589 5h 50m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 6h 36m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 42m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 49m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787 2h 53m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 6h 18m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 8h 02m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 54m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 9h 40m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 34m Chicago ORD 11:10 → LGA 14:30UA 529 6h 15m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 48m Chicago ORD 15:17 → LGA 18:32UA 2133 5h 17m 72% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON