tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3505 Republic IAD 12:48 MCI 14:50 9% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 1165 United IAD 18:03 MCI 19:51 15% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 7h 19m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826 4h 44m 91% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 09m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660 6h 31m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 20:38 → MCI 21:54DL 3023 7h 32m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 1h 06m Houston IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa 6h 35m 91% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 2h 37m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 8h 29m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 05m 100% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON