Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G7 4390 GoJet	IAD 22:27	MDT 23:41	10%	4%	1.0%	no record
G7 4578 GoJet	IAD 12:59	MDT 14:11	10%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → MDT 11:39DL 1248	5h 46m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857	6h 39m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → MDT 23:53DL 1283	5h 36m	91%	74%
United Details →	IAD 10:30 → ORD 11:52UA 1252	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MDT 16:59UA 533	6h 29m	99%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON