Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1073 at 08:45, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	15%	4%	0.7%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187	9h 15m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 09:01 → MIA 13:40DL 793	7h 40m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 28m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	5h 10m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	7h 35m	99%	70%
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	1h 21m Denver	DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445	9h 17m	93%	68%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	1h 01m Houston	IAH 12:00 → MIA 15:47UA 410	7h 07m	87%	65%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 38m	95%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831	1h 27m Newark	EWR 20:33 → MIA 23:44UA 791	6h 02m	69%	44%
American Details →	IAD 16:55 → DFW 19:15AA 524	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	7h 08m	68%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON