tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 251 at 17:48, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 251 United Flight history → IAD 17:48 MSY 19:28 19% 6% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 44m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 7h 09m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396 2h 51m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:42UA 2468 7h 27m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:50 → MSY 10:24DL 2790 5h 24m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 5h 59m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 20m Chicago ORD 10:56 → MSY 13:23UA 1532 6h 08m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 3h 21m Houston IAH 18:32 → MSY 19:51UA 2140 8h 01m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 56m Houston IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385 5h 34m 87% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON