Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4236 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	MYR 09:59	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → MYR 15:14DL 3182	7h 06m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 39m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:32 → MYR 10:49DL 3047	4h 56m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → MYR 21:49DL 3074	6h 27m	96%	73%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	1h 50m Newark	EWR 15:51 → MYR 17:59UA 3589 · flown by Republic	5h 24m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON