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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432 1h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 8h 12m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 45m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862 3h 11m San Francisco SFO 21:13 → ONT 22:41UA 552 10h 26m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 10h 20m 98% 73%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 9h 07m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:56 → SEA 12:36AS 375 2h 48m Seattle SEA 15:24 → ONT 17:58AS 592 11h 02m 100% 72%
FrontierDetails → IAD 12:23 → DFW 14:49F9 4559 2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:51 → ONT 18:19F9 4689 8h 56m 93% 68%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 1h 41m Seattle SEA 10:29 → ONT 13:04AS 571 10h 01m 96% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON