tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 278 at 17:45, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 278 United IAD 17:45 ORF 19:00 17% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 4308 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:45 ORF 18:59 35% 13% 4.2% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Detroit DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066 5h 57m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925 5h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787 2h 43m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 6h 10m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101 5h 24m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 2h 31m Chicago ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807 7h 09m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 3h 16m Denver DEN 17:58 → ORF 23:33UA 680 10h 45m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:32 → ORF 00:19 +1DL 2338 6h 02m 95% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → ORF 21:42DL 2984 6h 20m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:55 → DFW 19:15AA 524 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:04 → ORF 00:23 +1AA 1379 7h 28m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON