Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 42% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 780 United Flight history →	IAD 17:40	PDX 20:19	22%	6%	0.6%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → PDX 12:21DL 2415	9h 21m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	9h 04m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 05m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432	1h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	8h 00m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 36m	92%	83%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 55m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337	10h 33m	99%	82%
United Details →	IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413	10h 33m	96%	81%
United Details →	IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095	3h 27m San Francisco	SFO 12:39 → PDX 14:34UA 2851	11h 04m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831	57m Newark	EWR 20:03 → PDX 23:01UA 560	8h 19m	42%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON