Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4534 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:35	PHL 18:54	34%	16%	11.1%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	8h 43m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	9h 10m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331	5h 41m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787	2h 38m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	5h 54m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	6h 22m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	6h 07m	97%	83%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 48m Denver	DEN 13:53 → PHL 19:36UA 2787	9h 23m	96%	78%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 32m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON