Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 709 United Flight history →	IAD 08:34	PHX 10:31	9%	3%	0.6%	99%
UA 1938 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	PHX 19:46	17%	7%	0.6%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	9h 46m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:20 → PHX 12:01DL 1431	7h 51m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297	8h 55m	99%	83%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 30m Denver	DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254	9h 22m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796	9h 23m	99%	82%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	3h 16m Houston	IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798	9h 24m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	9h 10m	99%	82%
United Details →	IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689	3h 38m Los Angeles	LAX 19:20 → PHX 20:54UA 374	10h 44m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862	52m San Francisco	SFO 18:54 → PHX 20:51UA 1375	8h 36m	74%	55%
United Details →	IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831	1h 26m Newark	EWR 20:32 → PHX 22:46UA 2321	8h 04m	69%	46%
American Details →	IAD 16:55 → DFW 19:15AA 524	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → PHX 20:44AA 3232	6h 49m	71%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON