Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3640 IAD 08:32 → PIT 09:50 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3517 IAD 17:26 → PIT 18:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3640 Republic	IAD 08:32	PIT 09:50	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 3540 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 00:03	PIT 00:47	7%	3%	0.6%	80%
YX 3517 Republic	IAD 17:26	PIT 18:31	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 6119 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:30	PIT 09:40	12%	5%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON