tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1406 at 08:15, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1406 United Flight history → IAD 08:15 RSW 10:53 10% 3% 4.2% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 12m Minneapolis MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400 7h 27m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396 2h 20m Newark EWR 12:02 → RSW 15:16UA 1810 7h 01m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535 3h 20m Houston IAH 18:31 → RSW 22:11UA 2095 9h 21m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153 5h 28m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 27m Chicago ORD 11:03 → RSW 14:55UA 2137 6h 40m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 1h 34m Denver DEN 16:16 → RSW 21:58UA 572 9h 10m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 46m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Detroit DTW 08:38 → RSW 11:33DL 2001 5h 33m 91% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON