Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1930 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 1930 IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 201 IAD 19:22 → SAN 21:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1930 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	SAN 10:38	12%	4%	0.6%	94%
UA 2163 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SAN 15:03	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
AS 201 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 19:22	SAN 21:34	23%	6%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 38m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	92%	76%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302	7h 42m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON