tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1869 at 17:45, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 16% 6% 0.6% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 08:53 → SAT 11:46DL 2667 6h 46m 93% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 47m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 8h 13m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 30m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 42m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → SAT 21:26DL 2773 8h 15m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → EWR 09:42UA 2396 2h 38m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 8h 06m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 2h 52m Denver DEN 17:34 → SAT 20:50UA 8131 9h 02m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 6h 07m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON