Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 3980 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:48	SDF 14:37	18%	6%	0.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SDF 12:31DL 1481	6h 38m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 13:46 → SDF 15:05DL 3195	6h 57m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → SDF 17:15DL 1126	6h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 20:39 → SDF 22:07DL 2842	6h 45m	96%	79%
United Details →	IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 17:50 → SDF 20:23UA 3598 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	97%	79%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy	6h 34m	90%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 22:50 → SDF 00:14 +1DL 2624	5h 57m	95%	77%
United Details →	IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535	1h 24m Houston	IAH 16:35 → SDF 20:01UA 4050 · flown by Mesa	7h 11m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON