Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1015 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1015 IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest UA 1128 IAD 17:35 → SEA 20:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	12%	3%	0.7%	79%
AS 409 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 06:03	SEA 08:48	13%	3%	0.8%	63%
UA 1824 United	IAD 13:07	SEA 15:54	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 375 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 09:56	SEA 12:36	14%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1128 United	IAD 17:35	SEA 20:17	29%	8%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 59m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734	7h 34m	90%	73%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:22 → DTW 18:57DL 1787	1h 37m Detroit	DTW 20:34 → SEA 22:33DL 565	8h 11m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON