Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:47	SFO 12:34	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 3937 United	IAD 10:03	SFO 12:37	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 8234 United	IAD 12:39	SFO 15:20	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:18	SFO 19:13	17%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	SFO 18:02	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:42	SFO 21:31	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	28%	8%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → SFO 12:07DL 902	7h 57m	96%	74%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	7h 56m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → SFO 10:43DL 361	7h 43m	92%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON