tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432 1h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 25m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 37m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:10UA 2745 9h 35m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 9h 19m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 10h 35m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 2h 06m Seattle SEA 10:54 → SJC 13:01AS 658 9h 58m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:56 → SEA 12:36AS 375 1h 02m Seattle SEA 13:38 → SJC 15:45AS 1673 8h 49m 88% 63%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481 8h 01m 77% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:55 → DFW 19:15AA 524 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56AA 364 8h 01m 70% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON