tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2021 at 08:34, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2021 United Flight history → IAD 08:34 SJU 12:34 14% 3% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 39m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 31m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913 7h 11m 90% 75%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 7h 07m 91% 71%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:49 → ATL 09:06F9 4707 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → SJU 16:22F9 2082 9h 33m 98% 69%
FrontierDetails → IAD 09:24 → MCO 12:05F9 4355 3h 23m Orlando MCO 15:28 → SJU 18:40F9 1824 9h 16m 99% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON