Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 432 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:10	SLC 09:45	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 2410 United Flight history →	IAD 17:50	SLC 20:46	21%	5%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	7h 55m	97%	86%
United Details →	IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395	3h 02m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	98%	86%
Frontier Details →	IAD 06:15 → LAS 08:31F9 4277	1h 47m Las Vegas	LAS 10:18 → SLC 12:51F9 3016	8h 35m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 17m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 43m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 20m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	11h 40m	98%	79%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 45m Denver	DEN 13:50 → SLC 15:23UA 1840	7h 10m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON