tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2435 United Flight history → IAD 17:55 SMF 20:40 20% 6% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:15 → LAX 17:47UA 684 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 10h 33m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 9h 09m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:10 → SLC 09:45DL 432 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 06m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 07m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 37m Denver DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662 8h 04m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 3h 08m Denver DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132 9h 37m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 1h 16m Denver DEN 15:58 → SMF 17:35UA 1208 7h 47m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 19:26 → SMF 21:27DL 682 9h 05m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42UA 1689 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:30 → SMF 18:06UA 5858 · flown by SkyWest 7h 56m 74% 64%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21UA 2276 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:14 → SMF 22:48UA 5430 · flown by SkyWest 8h 00m 72% 62%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 03m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 7h 57m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON